Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
10.5 miles North-East of Yerington
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.5 miles North-East of Yerington
39.1229°N, 119.0745°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of July 2026
Jul 09, 2026 09:18:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
350h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
187.0 km
87.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
11.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.19
Predicted M2.11 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
9.8 km
Pred. 9.4 km vs actual 0.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
bcf94963c9a23e0eb34b518c6f36e4c8d0808ef2b36ac8c8ddde04923f04bf71
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260624_121116_pred-39.12--119.07-20260709T0918
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 24, 2026 19:11:19 PST
Source Batch
20260624_121116_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-25 08:31:35.155759+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.