Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
6.1 miles West of Ocotillo
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.1 miles West of Ocotillo
32.7130°N, 116.1019°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of June 2026
Jun 28, 2026 00:02:32 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
38h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
57.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.18
Predicted M2.38 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
16.6 km
Pred. 8.8 km vs actual 7.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
55a1b84cad001587c8dd70094235e6355950ea205c0f9ca122332dcc6ebb39b6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260626_021510_pred-32.71--116.10-20260628T0002
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 26, 2026 09:15:13 PST
Source Batch
20260626_021510_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-29 06:57:27.621790+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.