Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
3.6 miles South of Moreno Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.6 miles South of Moreno Valley
33.8903°N, 117.2269°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of July 2026
Jul 09, 2026 16:46:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
293h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
24.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
21.8 km
Pred. 7.8 km vs actual 14.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
de7a993385c90253093eec0bded0d1ee34e8b75eab1faca4aa1d600d87f08373
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260627_035535_pred-33.89--117.23-20260709T1646
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 27, 2026 10:55:39 PST
Source Batch
20260627_035535_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-29 06:57:32.805554+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.