Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
3.6 miles South of Moreno Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.6 miles South of Moreno Valley
33.8903°N, 117.2269°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of April 2023
Apr 05, 2023 22:06:47 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
50.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
21.8 km
Pred. 7.8 km vs actual 14.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d4a169837bd8b5bc52f1eac28dd9dbaccc601c483dede5cf15806252e951e1b6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260627_035901_pred-33.89--117.23-20230405T2206
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 27, 2026 10:59:04 PST
Source Batch
20260627_035901_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-29 06:57:34.214596+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.