Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
3.6 miles South of Moreno Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.6 miles South of Moreno Valley
33.8903°N, 117.2269°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of July 2026
Jul 10, 2026 08:56:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
309h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
24.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
23.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
21.8 km
Pred. 7.8 km vs actual 14.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5729e3476dd6be6aa6be400cd5ed9990823e1b54cf37524211b1daaca764db84
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260627_040730_pred-33.89--117.23-20260710T0856
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 27, 2026 11:07:35 PST
Source Batch
20260627_040730_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-29 06:57:35.586542+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.