Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
3.6 miles South of Moreno Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.6 miles South of Moreno Valley
33.8903°N, 117.2269°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of July 2026
Jul 05, 2026 21:21:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
201h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
124.3 km
24.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
2.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
16.2 km
Pred. 7.8 km vs actual 8.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f2402401a3bba5198eddc2718cab333468f92f20245066fd9e45afa37d2bc889
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260627_043343_pred-33.89--117.23-20260705T2121
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 27, 2026 11:33:49 PST
Source Batch
20260627_043343_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-29 06:57:41.856092+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.