Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
22.3 miles South-West of Soledad
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
22.3 miles South-West of Soledad
36.2203°N, 121.6361°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of June 2026
Jun 30, 2026 12:56:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
30h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
24.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.43
Predicted M2.63 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
11.4 km
Pred. 5.7 km vs actual 5.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
485dfe70e2fd8ce9ea3852b917ab19163cd9db302a096126e3b6afe53a3e8cd6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260628_234907_pred-36.22--121.64-20260630T1256
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 29, 2026 06:49:12 PST
Source Batch
20260628_234907_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-29 08:31:30.860350+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.