Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
22.3 miles South-West of Soledad
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
22.3 miles South-West of Soledad
36.2203°N, 121.6361°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of June 2026
Jun 28, 2026 10:01:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
61.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
34.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.63
Predicted M2.63 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
6.0 km
Pred. 5.7 km vs actual 0.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
afb2899dd247cc583ef334fb6765dade1312c5e7b54906fbee4264fe5d6a64c9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260628_235123_pred-36.22--121.64-20260628T1001
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 29, 2026 06:51:29 PST
Source Batch
20260628_235123_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-29 08:31:31.614729+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.