Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
11.4 miles North-East of Yerington
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.4 miles North-East of Yerington
39.1271°N, 119.0505°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of July 2026
Jul 10, 2026 16:13:43 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
273h 22m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
101.4 km
1.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
26.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.14
Predicted M2.24 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
17.3 km
Pred. 7.7 km vs actual 9.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
db35876c9c4b4d7ef2e0911de24856126dc1341145e3c2f8f6bad4307f0dc22d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260628_235123_pred-39.13--119.05-20260710T1613
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 29, 2026 06:51:29 PST
Source Batch
20260628_235123_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-29 08:31:31.614729+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.