Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
11.4 miles North-East of Yerington
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.4 miles North-East of Yerington
39.1271°N, 119.0505°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of July 2026
Jul 12, 2026 19:08:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
324h 4m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
27.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.66
Predicted M2.24 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
12.7 km
Pred. 7.7 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
34617e27829ef1a0cf7acb0727183a80c604e6550e6ba12c824ca494758252d5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260629_000405_pred-39.13--119.05-20260712T1908
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 29, 2026 07:04:12 PST
Source Batch
20260629_000405_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-29 08:31:24.554256+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.