Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
12.2 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.2 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3041°N, 119.0407°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of July 2026
Jul 11, 2026 22:05:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
303h 1m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
7.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
35.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.58
Predicted M2.32 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
14.6 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
18ba82c40b8a3de6a9d7f2588548d6153db4978b005452634bec3a7641ad61fd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260629_000405_pred-39.30--119.04-20260711T2205
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 29, 2026 07:04:12 PST
Source Batch
20260629_000405_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-29 08:31:24.554256+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.