Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
11.4 miles North-East of Yerington
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.4 miles North-East of Yerington
39.1271°N, 119.0505°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of July 2026
Jul 06, 2026 04:38:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
165h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
93.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
39.3 h
3.3 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.24 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
9.5 km
Pred. 7.7 km vs actual 1.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
165caef88e3fca3299328caec8e9fc20836e6a20a28fb11aec3a7319b675b53f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260629_002334_pred-39.13--119.05-20260706T0438
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 29, 2026 07:23:38 PST
Source Batch
20260629_002334_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-29 08:31:29.313667+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.