Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
8.4 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.4 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.8072°N, 122.7924°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of July 2026
Jul 11, 2026 21:50:32 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
294h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
2.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.09 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
5.0 km
Pred. 3.1 km vs actual 1.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8e35c16ad4e568f7f78b19fc29c78e59fb0c8088b1cb3298f869d37e6f6bea14
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260629_084330_pred-38.81--122.79-20260711T2150
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 29, 2026 15:43:35 PST
Source Batch
20260629_084330_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-30 06:53:59.945540+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.