Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
8.4 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.4 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.8072°N, 122.7924°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of April 2023
Apr 05, 2023 10:14:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
3.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.09 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
5.2 km
Pred. 3.1 km vs actual 2.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fc9c35bbd1d33189b6fd3f9ea24522b76ad1fb42698a1bfb96e0d7abf923a212
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260629_090506_pred-38.81--122.79-20230405T1014
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 29, 2026 16:05:12 PST
Source Batch
20260629_090506_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-30 06:54:04.629373+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.