Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
8.4 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.4 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.8072°N, 122.7924°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of July 2026
Jul 09, 2026 21:04:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
244h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
3.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.11
Predicted M2.09 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
4.3 km
Pred. 3.1 km vs actual 1.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9786dff5e54fb835b166b0639bca23e59168b71adc24552556cc3fabab693d74
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260629_091534_pred-38.81--122.79-20260709T2104
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 29, 2026 16:15:40 PST
Source Batch
20260629_091534_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-30 06:54:05.973730+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.