Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
17.9 miles South of Darwin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.9 miles South of Darwin
36.0277°N, 117.4779°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of July 2026
Jul 03, 2026 07:11:33 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
38h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
43.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M1.94 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
17.4 km
Pred. 10.2 km vs actual 7.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
43885ab2d3cc74636a4ae89b9b013af686d3f25387754c862b280e9af013eb56
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260708_123400_pred-36.03--117.48-20260703T0711
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 01, 2026 17:04:18 PST
Source Batch
20260708_123400_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-13 13:30:55.147754+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.