Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
7.7 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.7 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3412°N, 119.1117°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of July 2026
Jul 13, 2026 15:30:22 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
286h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
9.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.70
Predicted M2.2 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
15.2 km
Pred. 10.2 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5f04af617420a49edaacccdd0a1c15b09aac824d7270952fd40494a076e70e3d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260708_123400_pred-39.34--119.11-20260713T1530
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 01, 2026 17:04:18 PST
Source Batch
20260708_123400_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-13 13:30:55.147754+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.