Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
5.8 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.8 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.7765°N, 122.8237°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of July 2026
Jul 21, 2026 20:07:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
264h 42m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
9.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
22.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.11
Predicted M2.31 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
5.5 km
Pred. 4.1 km vs actual 1.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1bb59cdb9ed66b42c161f2ffb53e14b9a7f06e22d5074087d312029616022acc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260710_122517_pred-38.78--122.82-20260721T2007
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 10, 2026 19:25:19 PST
Source Batch
20260710_122517_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-13 13:30:56.274494+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.