Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M1.8
9.8 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.8 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3236°N, 119.0785°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of July 2026
Jul 17, 2026 08:26:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M1.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
157h 1m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
93.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
24.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M1.84 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
13.3 km
Pred. 8.4 km vs actual 4.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1fd8aee11200b20b973a448f4c4af82d30c96607dab85387e9aff9889ea03374
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260710_122517_pred-39.32--119.08-20260717T0826
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 10, 2026 19:25:19 PST
Source Batch
20260710_122517_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-13 13:30:56.274494+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.