Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
4.4 miles South-West of Brawley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.4 miles South-West of Brawley
32.9468°N, 115.5963°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of July 2026
Jul 11, 2026 17:21:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
9h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
38.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M2.1 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
8.0 km
Pred. 2.7 km vs actual 5.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e20a2ce9c0c199e2e1823bfa7f866798801e6819d11bfd91bd89082db9e8371a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260711_003219_pred-32.95--115.60-20260711T1721
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 11, 2026 07:32:22 PST
Source Batch
20260711_003219_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-13 13:30:57.294793+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.