Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
8.4 miles North-West of Essex
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.4 miles North-West of Essex
34.8390°N, 115.3306°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 20:46:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
517h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
132.1 km
32.1 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.85
Predicted M2.35 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
6.6 km
Pred. 1.6 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fab43b01d3b829cd367bf9db52f300bc66b65ae96d29439cf0518d90ce5705c0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260711_003219_pred-34.84--115.33-20260801T2046
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 11, 2026 07:32:22 PST
Source Batch
20260711_003219_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-13 13:30:57.294793+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.