Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
9.3 miles North of Truckee
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.3 miles North of Truckee
39.4595°N, 120.1494°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of July 2026
Jul 11, 2026 21:46:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
14h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
99.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
36.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.11
Predicted M2.79 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
12.7 km
Pred. 7.7 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0d8d5c34788cdd3f875cb1574d2e862ae9063f45ae7c0aca878040bb747644ab
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260711_003219_pred-39.46--120.15-20260711T2146
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 11, 2026 07:32:22 PST
Source Batch
20260711_003219_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-13 13:30:57.294793+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.