Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
1.6 miles West of Poway
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.6 miles West of Poway
32.9706°N, 117.0619°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of July 2026
Jul 15, 2026 05:59:13 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
28h 21m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
26.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.37
Predicted M2.03 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
29.8 km
Pred. 9.0 km vs actual 20.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ca3872c4f31faba7be5a91abd4c408b2df94a10924b0042bbcd5903acf4c62ac
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260713_183757_pred-32.97--117.06-20260715T0559
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 14, 2026 01:38:00 PST
Source Batch
20260713_183757_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:14.670880+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.