Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
18.4 miles North of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.4 miles North of Warm Springs
38.4316°N, 116.5068°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2026
Aug 05, 2026 17:21:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
543h 43m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
58.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
39.9 h
3.9 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.34 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
8.9 km
Pred. 8.9 km vs actual 0.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
48f050cb089ddc8b745600e1ecd1be7291160efaaec5d7f1a9ed1e4874240f33
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260713_183757_pred-38.43--116.51-20260805T1721
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 14, 2026 01:38:00 PST
Source Batch
20260713_183757_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:14.670880+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.