Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
15.4 miles East of Mina
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.4 miles East of Mina
38.4279°N, 117.8201°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2026
Aug 05, 2026 17:28:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
543h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
93.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.49
Predicted M2.21 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
14.9 km
Pred. 8.9 km vs actual 6.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a4f33888314b696b674865d90562980badf4ce827041a5fea852c1cbf143846b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260713_183757_pred-38.43--117.82-20260805T1728
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 14, 2026 01:38:00 PST
Source Batch
20260713_183757_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:14.670880+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.