Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
21.3 miles North-East of Clear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.3 miles North-East of Clear Lake
39.3040°N, 122.5491°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of July 2026
Jul 27, 2026 21:10:32 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
331h 32m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
58.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.37
Predicted M2.03 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
11.2 km
Pred. 8.9 km vs actual 2.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b1f97b6ec3af4eec790ef67af2cac7ef07ac6edc24e35ce00b1bdcd00de783a5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260713_183757_pred-39.30--122.55-20260727T2110
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 14, 2026 01:38:00 PST
Source Batch
20260713_183757_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:14.670880+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.