Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
7.0 miles North-West of Susanville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.0 miles North-West of Susanville
40.5066°N, 120.7114°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 13:37:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
515h 59m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
50.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
37.9 h
1.9 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M1.94 vs actual M1.9
Depth Error
17.4 km
Pred. 8.9 km vs actual 8.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e0ae77e1e32ce4359ec5b2bfbfc6b9697b9873b4db3689c7cb036302559f8343
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260713_183757_pred-40.51--120.71-20260804T1337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 14, 2026 01:38:00 PST
Source Batch
20260713_183757_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:14.670880+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.