Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
2.2 miles North-West of Calipatria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.2 miles North-West of Calipatria
33.1380°N, 115.5496°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of July 2026
Jul 16, 2026 06:39:20 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
5h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
59.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M2.56 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
10.3 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
57d9c1d178a15e18b9e3fa993f5169a2cf61efc83b332a9217306172a57c1f9d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260715_180517_pred-33.14--115.55-20260716T0639
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 01:05:20 PST
Source Batch
20260715_180517_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:16.929307+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.