Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
21.3 miles South-West of Newport Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.3 miles South-West of Newport Beach
33.3362°N, 118.0776°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of July 2026
Jul 16, 2026 23:52:19 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
22h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
87.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
31.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.18
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
18.2 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 8.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ef4dc676c1f1acf8d733bd337fbf6c50a8db65247004ecb3996efb38ea7f8b35
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260715_180517_pred-33.34--118.08-20260716T2352
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 01:05:20 PST
Source Batch
20260715_180517_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:16.929307+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.