Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
9.4 miles North-East of Banning
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.4 miles North-East of Banning
34.0160°N, 116.7546°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of July 2026
Jul 16, 2026 12:23:40 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
11h 18m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
7.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
23.5 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 18.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8d8d4041aa6ba44f1ef794848b3ca22067d9fba7a7eccd4c82eb7cc52d75a059
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260715_180517_pred-34.02--116.75-20260716T1223
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 01:05:20 PST
Source Batch
20260715_180517_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:16.929307+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.