Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
6.2 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.2 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
34.3264°N, 116.8666°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of July 2026
Jul 17, 2026 22:49:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
45h 44m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
43.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
21.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.49
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
24.6 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 18.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c5d3d7c55eba272edb23711a6d1a542433f64c3cc232779b73262d4ec087aa94
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260715_180517_pred-34.33--116.87-20260717T2249
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 01:05:20 PST
Source Batch
20260715_180517_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:16.929307+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.