Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
2.9 miles South-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.9 miles South-East of Ojai
34.4149°N, 119.2129°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of July 2026
Jul 18, 2026 10:18:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
57h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
76.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.73
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
13.9 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 8.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
30822f4221506e5b9b5635f10138c8d762f227e61d37ca69b12f6cc2bb306f33
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260715_180517_pred-34.41--119.21-20260718T1018
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 01:05:20 PST
Source Batch
20260715_180517_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:16.929307+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.