Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
11.6 miles South of Durham
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.6 miles South of Durham
39.4778°N, 121.8302°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of July 2026
Jul 19, 2026 03:31:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
74h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
16.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.77
Predicted M2.77 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
35.4 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 30.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8df6d795c62d05599ecbd5d5e33140b31c4ce36004b7738a55916660135b90d5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260715_180517_pred-39.48--121.83-20260719T0331
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 01:05:20 PST
Source Batch
20260715_180517_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:16.929307+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.