Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
1.6 miles North-West of Empire
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.6 miles North-West of Empire
40.5910°N, 119.3697°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of July 2026
Jul 15, 2026 07:42:02 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
67.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.36
Predicted M2.36 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
16.7 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 10.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b72b2cc7f42a98babd9db010b87a56bfa6eea3057f79134c345360cd3d266f23
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260715_180517_pred-40.59--119.37-20260715T0742
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 01:05:20 PST
Source Batch
20260715_180517_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:16.929307+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.