Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
27.4 miles West of Tuscarora
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
27.4 miles West of Tuscarora
41.2413°N, 116.7441°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of July 2026
Jul 15, 2026 19:10:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
299.4 km
199.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
26.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.99
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
18.3 km
Pred. 7.6 km vs actual 10.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ea98ee96d15e867b591e9206e619c0a63536fabaa2ba472c77433303e70458d1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260715_180517_pred-41.24--116.74-20260715T1910
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 01:05:20 PST
Source Batch
20260715_180517_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:16.929307+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.