Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
21.7 miles South of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.7 miles South of Calexico
32.3727°N, 115.5815°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2026
Aug 05, 2026 06:13:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.7 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
20.0
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
477h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
50.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.13
Predicted M3.43 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
32.7 km
Pred. 10.7 km vs actual 22.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
48427af164d39c6ea552dc7a7e133b3157631892eba3715b59fff245f95ff971
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260716_013812_pred-32.37--115.58-20260805T0613
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 08:38:15 PST
Source Batch
20260716_013812_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:19.224745+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.