Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
13.6 miles South-East of Salton City
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.6 miles South-East of Salton City
33.1180°N, 115.8608°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 18:44:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.3 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
100.0
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
658h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
24.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
22.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.72
Predicted M3.62 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
16.5 km
Pred. 14.3 km vs actual 2.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3707a82de3acc817ea2d68d04b2f57a5337def503db1310593aab35dcb0dfabe
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260716_013812_pred-33.12--115.86-20260812T1844
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 08:38:15 PST
Source Batch
20260716_013812_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:19.224745+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.