Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
2.1 miles North-West of Crowley Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.1 miles North-West of Crowley Lake
37.5999°N, 118.7828°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of July 2026
Jul 21, 2026 05:11:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
55.6
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
116h 33m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
192.4 km
92.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.40
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
23.4 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 9.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a1b02a407e9a2f3e2848ad03def7c2b9810a8c89f7a2f7b527500fda24b562f7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260716_013812_pred-37.60--118.78-20260721T0511
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 08:38:15 PST
Source Batch
20260716_013812_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:19.224745+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.