Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
15.0 miles South-West of Marietta
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.0 miles South-West of Marietta
38.2484°N, 118.7675°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of July 2026
Jul 18, 2026 17:01:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
55.6
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
56h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
173.4 km
73.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
9.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.88
Predicted M2.98 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
22.2 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 8.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f243af6e10a33733474be59f08dc4653e47a50a84ccd71d8bbd19f3b5314c44d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260716_013812_pred-38.25--118.77-20260718T1701
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 08:38:15 PST
Source Batch
20260716_013812_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:19.224745+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.