Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
19.1 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.1 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.4430°N, 118.9724°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of July 2026
Jul 31, 2026 05:52:56 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
55.6
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
357h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
97.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
34.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.72
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
24.1 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7334fbac3dd55fe3aad663240789719324449bae847e80dbdc1890979ee26606
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260716_013812_pred-38.44--118.97-20260731T0552
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 08:38:15 PST
Source Batch
20260716_013812_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:19.224745+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.