Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
18.8 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.8 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.4405°N, 118.9765°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 18:03:13 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
16.4 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
55.6
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
417h 24m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
80.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
55.5 h
19.6 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.64
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
19.4 km
Pred. 16.4 km vs actual 3.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8aa0c9c486410ffc31d759d35ef7a9af82004587dd229df3ffaa028677419ebf
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260716_013812_pred-38.44--118.98-20260802T1803
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 08:38:15 PST
Source Batch
20260716_013812_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:19.224745+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.