Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
3.0 miles North of Plymouth
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.0 miles North of Plymouth
38.5229°N, 120.8244°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 18:23:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
21.6 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
20.0
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
537h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
219.8 km
119.8 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
2.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M3.1
Depth Error
31.6 km
Pred. 21.6 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4aa9fbe3fcc97206aec683e9992aa6710d071e7221e76b606758907ffa520229
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260716_013812_pred-38.52--120.82-20260807T1823
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 08:38:15 PST
Source Batch
20260716_013812_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:19.224745+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.