Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
13.7 miles North-East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.7 miles North-East of Potter Valley
39.4059°N, 122.8739°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of July 2026
Jul 26, 2026 05:32:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
66.7
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
236h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
68.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
24.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.74
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
14.3 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 3.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fd6fa9d858949553e7de28e1d8cca368d7e984cc0577d2768e5d1d6025466a29
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260716_013812_pred-39.41--122.87-20260726T0532
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 08:38:15 PST
Source Batch
20260716_013812_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:19.224745+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.