Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
21.0 miles South of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.0 miles South of Eureka
40.4983°N, 124.1776°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of August 2026
Aug 15, 2026 06:54:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
73.3
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
718h 16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
24.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
18.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.22
Predicted M3.92 vs actual M2.7
- 0.22 over limit
Depth Error
24.4 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 10.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4c8be6f1c616be2d635e7a18a6938ccb7b72f47e2d846417a550a95d9855da46
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260716_013812_pred-40.50--124.18-20260815T0654
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 08:38:15 PST
Source Batch
20260716_013812_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:19.224745+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.