Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
39.3 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
39.3 miles South-East of Calexico
32.1758°N, 115.1829°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of July 2026
Jul 20, 2026 01:42:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
55h 43m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
4.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
34.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
20.3 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 10.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4a6de1da8f3c9932561fd4ecb048d5258dfca65515829435f57844d4e49694ae
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_105848_pred-32.18--115.18-20260720T0142
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 17, 2026 17:58:51 PST
Source Batch
20260717_105848_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:53.006747+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.