Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
105.5 miles South-West of Rancho Palos Verdes
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
105.5 miles South-West of Rancho Palos Verdes
32.3887°N, 119.2238°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of July 2026
Jul 21, 2026 12:07:10 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
90h 8m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
279.3 km
179.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.07
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
7.5 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 2.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e897efd0c8fcf68fb3e4d20e0d13dadb176e1540eccc9cf3a54f8cfaff57e94e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_105848_pred-32.39--119.22-20260721T1207
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 17, 2026 17:58:51 PST
Source Batch
20260717_105848_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:53.006747+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.