Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
4.8 miles North-West of Calipatria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.8 miles North-West of Calipatria
33.1736°N, 115.5746°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of July 2026
Jul 19, 2026 02:46:01 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
32h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
49.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.46
Predicted M2.56 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
15.1 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 9.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2ebb3c3a5918b591194eafc2f63f6dbd9642195871d3d332090e115b712848da
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_105848_pred-33.17--115.57-20260719T0246
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 17, 2026 17:58:51 PST
Source Batch
20260717_105848_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:53.006747+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.