Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
46.1 miles South of Refugio
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
46.1 miles South of Refugio
33.7988°N, 120.1520°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of July 2026
Jul 22, 2026 05:19:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
107h 20m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
95.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
32.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.74
Predicted M2.94 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
13.1 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 7.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a1fb8f863e80ca25bc5621f91613c080576387bddd5e08b16a68c5e23616876f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_105848_pred-33.80--120.15-20260722T0519
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 17, 2026 17:58:51 PST
Source Batch
20260717_105848_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:53.006747+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.