Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
12.1 miles South of Oxnard
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.1 miles South of Oxnard
34.0232°N, 119.1935°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of July 2026
Jul 21, 2026 17:51:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
95h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
8.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
44.3 h
8.3 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.49
Predicted M2.69 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
13.1 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 7.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
46b98d1eadaa59c223af41a754c03c3b1f8328822c28ee336c7c835949abd116
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_105848_pred-34.02--119.19-20260721T1751
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 17, 2026 17:58:51 PST
Source Batch
20260717_105848_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:53.006747+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.