Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
21.4 miles South of Essex
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.4 miles South of Essex
34.4381°N, 115.1495°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of July 2026
Jul 21, 2026 06:23:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
84h 24m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
164.6 km
64.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
23.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.73
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
17.2 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 11.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
be8b4e446196d04ed8307b0fb4425690bf0056a86c201aeefa7beca843734679
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_105848_pred-34.44--115.15-20260721T0623
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 17, 2026 17:58:51 PST
Source Batch
20260717_105848_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:53.006747+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.